The Trade Desk’s bumper quarter has some important caveats

By Ronan Shields

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The Trade Desk revealed its latest earnings report on Wednesday with Q4 revenue up 24% year-on-year totaling $491 million while its income for the entirety of 2022 exceeded $1.5 billion, up 32%.

Evidence shows the leading independent demand-side platform is weathering the current economic storm and outperforming its peer set, albeit there are some nuances to consider that portend challenges to come.

Gross spend on the platform was $7.8 billion last year while forecasted revenue during the coming quarter is “at least $363 million,” according to a company statement, a sign that the DSP expects to maintain the good times.

During the company’s subsequent earnings call, The Trade Desk’s CEO Jeff Green cited published figures from Insider Intelligence hinting at a rebalancing of marketers’ budgets away from walled gardens, and towards “the open internet.”

Speaking with equities analysts, he cited the report asserting that 2023 is set to be the first year that Meta and Google, a.k.a. “the duopoly” represented less than half of all (48.4%) digital advertising spend for the first time in almost a decade.

Additionally, Green also characterized CTV as “the kingpin of the open internet” and how this portion of the media landscape is “fragmented” to the point where it will play into the DSP’s strengths.

In particular, The Trade Desk is betting that as streaming services such as Disney+ and NBCUnivesrsal’s Peacock become the primary means for audiences to consume premium content, and that advertisers’ spend will subsequently further drift from the duopolu. “​​CTV is perfectly fragmented but collectively huge,” he is quoted as saying, “It’s fragmented enough that no one has enough power to be draconian and go it alone.”

The markets clearly approved with The Trade Desk’s stock price leaping by more than 25% on the same day of its earnings disclosure with its market capitalization topping $30 billion.

And while analysts were keen to laud The Trade Desk’s performance and execution, some hastened to add how there are some important caveats to consider, namely how walled gardens are here to stay, arguably proliferating.

Size matters

In his assessment, Madison and Wall’s Brian Wieser acknowledged that while The Trade Desk’s (comparative) objectivity means some marketers will favor the DSP’s offering to the walled gardens, the scale of Meta and Google remains attractive to media buyers.

“If an individual service or technology provider can demonstrate high ROIs (however defined) in limited volumes, marketers who might only have the resources to spend with one or two media owners are unlikely to shift away from those walled gardens any time soon,” he added.

Further still, while Insider Intelligence data does indeed depict a loosening of Meta and Google’s stranglehold on advertisers’ budgets, recent headlines around these numbers were restricted to the U.S.

“Insider Intelligence’s data is defined on a net basis, not a gross basis. For the numerator, market control or dominance should only be defined …read more

Source:: Digiday

      

Aaron
Author: Aaron

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